Marketing Commentary- Q2 2008
What’s Been Happening? With the exception of small company stocks which posted a modest gain, every index we track in this report was down for the second quarter of 2008. This pullback from the October 9, 2007 recent market peak officially places us squarely in a bear market for US stocks. International stocks have not been spared and emerging market stocks which held up relatively well over the last couple of quarters have now joined in the pain. For example, in the first six months of 2008 a major index in China was down 46% and India was off 34% despite economies still growing at...
Read MoreMarketing Commentary- Q1 2008
What’s Been Happening? The first quarter of 2008 was memorable. To many observers Bear Stearns’ swift collapse would have seemed unthinkable. Quick action over a weekend in mid-March by the Federal Reserve and JP Morgan may have averted a crisis of confidence in our capital markets that left unchecked could have had disastrous consequences. Much of the press coverage referred to the action as a bailout, but the firm’s shareholders and employees would beg to differ. The stock, which traded at $150 in May 2007, now hovers at around the $10 purchase price offered by JP Morgan. The bond market...
Read MoreMarketing Commentary- Q4 2007
What’s Been Happening? After recovering from swoons in March and August, the US stock market measured by the S&P 500 peaked for the year in early October then finally fell once more in the fourth quarter. Despite the bumpy ride, the index’s loss for the quarter was limited to 3.3%. Emerging markets continued to be a bright spot and high quality intermediate government bonds benefited from a continued flight to quality. Markets continue to be volatile as uncertainty persists around the health of the economy, energy prices, the housing market and the dollar. Trends to be Aware of A...
Read MoreMarketing Commentary- Q3 2007
What’s Been Happening? The third quarter will be remembered for its volatility. The broad US stock indexes peaked in mid July, sagged in mid August and recovered nearly all of the losses by the end of September. The charts look similar to the tracks on an amusement park roller coaster but the ride wasn’t nearly as fun. Emerging Market stocks were the only asset class that continued to rise by double digits largely avoiding the problems spurred on by the subprime mortgage meltdown. In every other area, risk has recently been “repriced” with investors back to demanding significantly higher...
Read MoreMarketing Commentary- Q2 2007
What’s Been Happening? Our only major asset class that has fallen in value recently has been Real Estate, as measured by the total return on REITs. It seems likely there is a connection to the sub prime loan losses that are now being reported in the tens of billions of dollars (WSJ, 7.9.2007). Large growth stocks, especially technology, are on the rise. The total return of the S&P 500 exceeded 20% for the twelve months ending 6/30/2007. Money has continued to flow into Emerging Market Securities, driving up prices. The MSCI Emerging Market Index is up over 45% for the past twelve...
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