Marketing Commentary- Q3 2004
What’s Been Happening? Bonds were surprisingly strong in the past three months. As the Fed raised short-term interest rates, the market bid up longer-term bonds and mortgage rates fell. Lower long-term interest rates would be expected to presage a slower growth economy. Then again, this could just be a show of respect for oil prices that have swiftly marched above $50 per barrel. Trends to be Aware of Stocks have moved mostly sideways in the US in 2004, but have fared much better in non US Developed Markets and Emerging Markets. It is counterintuitive that stocks would rise in the...
Read MoreMarketing Commentary- Q2 2004
What’s Been Happening? While we collectively hold our breath, pondering developments in politics and terrorist tactics, financial markets have taken a breather. The U.S. Stock Market advanced modestly for the quarter, at least that’s what a positive return of 1.71% feels like after the volatility of recent years. Bonds and Real Estate securities lost ground as the spectre of rising interest rates provided their first real headwind in recent memory. Emerging Market stocks, as a broad category, fell hardest in the recent quarter but remain well ahead of levels of two years ago. Trends to be...
Read MoreMarketing Commentary- Q1 2004
What’s Been Happening? The recovery in the US stock market continues, although the pace has slowed. Earnings have been stronger than expected, and prices follow profits. Real Estate funds continued to outperform other asset classes, but as of March 31, REIT prices exceed underlying property values by over 30%, so the REIT correction of early April is no great surprise. Small Company stocks have dramatically outperformed Large Company stocks in recent periods. Historically, small company stocks lead recoveries, while Large Company stocks complete them. International funds have awakened from a...
Read MoreMarketing Commentary- Q4 2003
What’s Been Happening? The stock markets of the world soared upward in the last quarter of 2003, in joyous defiance of common expectations. Concerns over the U.S. occupation of Iraq, lack of job creation during the economic recovery and other worries couldn’t constrain financial markets bent on running for daylight. It bears repeating that the extraordinary returns of 2003 were largely unexpected. When short-term returns are so often surprising, it is relevant to ask, “When will we admit we cannot predict and cease to be surprised?” Trends to be Aware of The biggest worldwide economic story...
Read MoreMarketing Commentary- Q3 2003
What’s Been Happening? It is well documented that most investors, including most professional money managers, don’t beat “the market” over time. This is one of those rare times when, looking back, it appears the professionals are beating both the dartboard and the unmanaged indexes. But a closer look tells a different story, at least with mutual funds. Over the five years ending 8/31/2003, fewer than half of actively managed mutual funds managed to beat the indexes to which they should be compared. Categorizing mutual funds by the size of the company they invest in (Large, Medium and Small)...
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