Marketing Commentary- Q4 2005
What’s Been Happening? While it may seem like the year sputtered to a flat finish, a look around the globe tells a different story. Emerging Markets scored enormous gains as the “ten flatteners” (such as offshoring and outsourcing) that Thomas Freidman talks about in “The World is Flat” took hold. Bangalore was booming. We frequently hear sound bites about the increasingly less relevant Dow Jones Industrial Index (flat for 2005), the Nasdaq (up 1.37% in 2005) and the S&P 500 (+4.89% in 2005). Our global portfolios substantially outperformed. A year ago, when our press was decrying the...
Read MoreMarketing Commentary- Q3 2005
What’s Been Happening? It seems like risk is back in fashion, especially outside the U.S. International and Emerging Benchmarks made the loudest statements in the past three months, up 10% and 18%, respectively. Emerging markets have advanced almost 50% in the past year, despite higher oil prices that should hurt economies that rely heavily on energy demanding manufacturing. Despite above average three-year annual returns of over 16 % for large US Companies, the S&P 500 is still underwater over the past five years. The record damages of Hurricane Katrina and her sibling storms are now...
Read MoreMarketing Commentary- Q2 2005
What’s Been Happening? Alan Greenspan describes the flattening yield curve as a conundrum, and he is about as close to the issue as can be. The surprise for Greenspan and Co. is that as they have raised short-term interest rates nine times in recent years, longer-term rates have fallen. Ten-year treasuries now yield about 4%, whereas overnight loan rates to banks are 3.25%. That very small difference between short and long-term rates historically indicates a slowing economy, yet profits are improving, home prices keep rising and you hardly hear about unemployment rates any more. Winners this...
Read MoreMarketing Commentary- Q1 2005
What’s Been Happening? Like last year, 2005 has begun with a losing quarter for the major stock indices. Smaller company stock funds fell more than Large Company Stocks, reversing the trend of the past few years. The dollar has begun to recover, especially versus the Yen. International Stocks managed to overcome this currency headwind in the past three months to deliver positive gains, but the margins of recent out performance appear to be shrinking. Real Estate funds (REITS) and commodities funds fell sharply in the first quarter. The perception might be that the easy money has been made in...
Read MoreMarketing Commentary- Q4 2004
What’s Been Happening? The dollar continued to fall relative to the Yen and the Euro, adding a tailwind to the returns from International funds. Meanwhile, easing oil prices put domestic financial markets more at ease and the US Stock Market earned 90% of its 2004 return in the past ninety days. Three months ago, markets fretted over the presidential election. As expected, stocks rose after the election uncertainty ended. Despite a backdrop of war, terrorist threats and an uncommon human disaster in Asia, financial markets had a normal year. Broad expectations for higher long-term interest...
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